Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes
Created by MG96
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physics.ao-ph
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Loading...Abstract
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane numbers, closed-form solutions exist for the mean and the variance of the number of predicted hurricanes, and for the standard error on the mean. We derive a number of such expressions.